Galiullin A.N. 1
Votyakov E.O. 1
1 Kazan State Medical University of Ministry of Health of Russia
As a result of the conducted complex social hygienic research of influence of 22 medico-social factors of risk at 690 men having DGPZh with definition of a share of influence of each factor by the dispersive analysis forecasting of risks of emergence of a good-quality giperplaziya of a prostate gland at men was carried out. Calculations of forecasting of development of DGPZh for the rated intensive indicators (RII) of prevalence of this disease are shown. Examples of calculation of development of DGPZh on medico-social factors of risk are shown. The predictive matrix for a complex assessment of risk of emergence of DGPZh at men is presented, and also threshold values of total predictive coefficients for definition of the individual forecast of risk of emergence of DGPZh aged from 20 years and are more senior on medico-social factors of risk. The presented technique of individual forecasting gives the chance to define influence of priority risk factors on development of DGPZh and to develop actions for prevention of this disease.